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Seven years ago, it took just eight words to ignite a Labour conference demonstrating the party was falling out of love with its then leader. While not exactly soaring oratory, the phrase met with rapturous applause as delegates stood for spontaneous acclamation.

When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.

In that deeply polarized period of 2018, departing from his agreed text like this was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in working-class seats over the pro-European instincts within Labour. With that single address, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who would stand up for the party's base against a leader he would later replace.

The Shift in Position & Settled Debates

In the years since, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the EU question had been settled by the 2019 national vote. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge promises that ruled out re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, even if survey data indicates many of them have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on Europe

However, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to be an embattled Labour leader. And, if EU relations may not be the central crisis of British politics, a lid which was firmly shut for five years is starting to loosen again.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up their language about the devastation caused by Brexit has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was his primary goal and is still his sole political accomplishment.

Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has resulted in a national economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, towers over the minor adjustments so far offered by ministers. The PM's much-touted re-set deal agreed with Brussels in 2024 provides gains quantified in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure & Bolder Ideas

The chancellor is one of those attempting to bypass long-standing Home Office resistance to a broader scheme designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme by which young people can travel between the UK and the EU for work or study.

The deputy prime minister muses openly about the “self-evident” benefits of being in an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, recently supported an opposition proposal on joining one.

While Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, now present at every cabinet meeting, maintains the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there are ways these could be bypassed. One idea would be to declaring the commencement of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the following election platform, to be enacted only after Labour won a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Doubts

Yet, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water again cautioning that a return to a European customs area would “unravel” the trade pacts with America, which he views as key accomplishments of his government.

Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, stemming from several key concerns.

1. First, he thinks a customs pact has been made much harder because his ministers actively diverging from European rules across a range of sectors, like environmental standards.
2. Secondly, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse in talks has convinced UK negotiators that European nations have little interest in offering favorable terms to the UK and are more focused on proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is viewed by some influential figures in Number 10 as a reason for the UK to keep its distance from the EU.

A Bizarre Document and Strategic Calculations

This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper asserts Europe is threatened by cultural extinction due to immigration. It contains only one reference of the UK, placed beside a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in British politics to foster the growth of “patriotic” parties.

However, instead of deciding that this makes America an unreliable partner, ministers reportedly fear that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by endangering fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Leadership Speculation and The Echo from the Past

This situation returns us to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not an attempt for the leadership but simply an attempt to keep open the possibility of remain in a future vote. Indeed, back then, he still supported a tailored trade agreement of the kind he currently seems to reject.

But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office note that the Health Secretary, widely considered would stand in any leadership election, is part of a clutch of senior ministers signaling they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.

Aides to Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a future race for the top job, insist she won’t discuss her position on a customs union because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Clear Danger and A Wise Memory

The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.

It would be wise of him to recall the effect just a few words had on his career seven years ago. Potential pathways for a major proposal on Europe that the prime minister ought to consider; he should prise them open himself, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.